Perpetuating the COVID Crisis

Bethany Heine -

What is a pandemic?

“Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people….Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area.” – CDC (2012)

At what point is a pandemic declared?
There are no consistent metrics for when a pandemic is declared. There is no standard for how many countries or people are affected before action is taken. However, health authorities are often concerned with disease transmission. Transmission can be measured using R-naught (or reproductive number).

R-naught is an average of how many people a sick person will likely infect. For example: if is 3, then one sick person will likely infect an average of 3 people.

  • If is greater than 1, case numbers will increase, and a pandemic is at risk of happening.
  • If is less than 1, case numbers will decrease, and the disease will decline.

As of August 20, 2020, Washington’s R-naught is close to 1. Governor Inslee stated Washington’s will need to be significantly below 1 to have life go back to normal. In reality, anything less than 1 is good.

What constitutes a State of Emergency?

“(12) The governor may, after finding that a public disorder, disaster, energy emergency, or riot exists within this state or any part thereof which affects life, health, property, or the public peace, proclaim a state of emergency in the area affected, and the powers granted the governor during a state of emergency shall be effective only within the area described in the proclamation.” – RCW 43.06.010

When does a State of Emergency end?

“…The state of emergency shall cease to exist upon the issuance of a proclamation of the governor declaring its termination: PROVIDED, That the governor must terminate said state of emergency proclamation when order has been restored in the area affected.” – RCW 43.06.210

At what point does the pandemic end?
COVID-19 is often compared to the 1918 influenza pandemic or the 2003 SARS pandemic. If COVID-19 is seasonal, then the pandemic will likely be over when cases reach a stable baseline, just like influenza does every year.

The World Health Organization released guidance following 2003 SARS. A SARS pandemic can be declared over 28 days after the last reported case was contained and all transmission routes are managed. If COVID-19 is like SARS, similar guidance could be expected.

Is it a perpetual crisis in the making?
While R-naught is an important measurement, there are no solid metrics for the beginning or end of a pandemic. All counties are indefinitely stuck in their current Phases. The law clearly shows it’s on Governor Inslee to end the state of emergency. There have been several lawsuits brought against the governor in this domain. None have succeeded. Such ambiguity leads to a perpetual crisis, driven recklessly by immature science and opportunistic fearmongers.